How should it end with only €? Looking at the chart, can be sensed bad. An analysis and perspective of development from a technical point of view.

The case of “€ “

Do you remember the price of € just before the banking crisis in 2008? At that time, the euro, versus the U.S. dollar, his absolute all-time high, and not only against the American currency, he could hold his own, he also showed the other leading currencies in the world, which means strength. The € knew who he was, and he knew that the Europeans, or at least they thought to know this. But as so often in life, ideas that people have of themselves and the world need not be corrected rare, which can sometimes be extremely painful.

At that time, in June 2008, 1 € was a present from about 1.60 U.S. dollars. Long is now already since about four years, almost an eternity in the fast moving world of foreign exchange, and at the moment the euro traded at around 1235 U.S. dollars in about 25 percent below its highs. May indeed, there, dear Europeans. Greece, Spain, Italy, France. Stability is called differently. And this will be punished quickly in times of global financial world. Effectively, it means the loss of value that each citizen whose savings and assets denominated in euro, losing about 25 percent of its assets had. But it can get any worse?


The case of the euro in the last four years

Who is the monthly chart of the euro / U.S. dollar looks will find that it came after the rapid depreciation in 2008 to two recoveries, both of which approached but could not stick to the all-time high. Rather, a long-term consolidation trained with resistance at 1.49, 1.60 and 1505 and support at 1.23 and 1.22. At the moment you arrive with a listing of approximately 1235 at the lower end of the long-term consolidation. Now we shall see how it goes.

After classical chart analysis said that once the consolidation has been broken, the price will move in the direction of the opening. But what does the classical chart analysis matter? The markets often do what they want, and especially news and unexpected events scratch the reliability of chart analysis. Therefore, one can forecast the strength of chart analysis can not be regarded as immutable. Despite this, studies carried out by the author, show that the foreign exchange market trend movements have a higher probability to continue, as the occurrence of contrasting movements. The long-term trend is currently being directed sideways, it being noted that the price has reached the lower end of the long-term consolidation zone. The medium-term trend is to break through a medium-term consolidation clearly downward, without any positive trends could be noted. It goes down. And with a momentum that has simply left all the support behind him. But at least in the short term the market is due to its extremely oversold situations the first signs of a backlash.

As we continue with the €?

Since we have arrived at a solid support that is in the range of 1.23 cents and the market is oversold in the short term, the probability of a counter movement to the top is relatively high. From a technical perspective aims at 1.265, 1.29, 1305 and 1325 are possible. The greater the potential backlash, the more likely it is that the long-term consolidation is not broken down. The alternative scenario is that the long-term consolidation is broken without backlash at 1.23 in the coming days, which would indicate extreme market weakness. The first course would target 1.1930 then expected, which could be reached very quickly. Other target prices would be 1.16, 1.09 and the parity at 1 We hope it will not come this far.

Fall or rise of the euro? The future will tell!

Judging by the notorious speculator George Soros, who has acquired by betting his billions in the financial markets of the world throughout a reputation as a cool active financial juggler, the euro is “in mortal danger,” as in an interview with the “world” announced. Fail in light of the fact that his bets in his favor, as a rule, you should pay some attention to his statement. Whatever the future may develop, the euro will have to get through hard times, and with the euro and the Germans. Looking at the fundamental situation, you should be set up sooner or later, that a technological breakthrough will be down. Therefore, recoveries would be suitable to sell in the market. Or, it turns out differently than everyone thinks. Who knows?