The IEA says global oil demand will increase from 88.3 million barrels a day by 2010 to 95 million in 2016.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) under the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) expects oil consumption in 2011 is 89 million barrels a day, 160,000 barrels less than in its previous estimate, while in 2012 the demand will be of 90.3 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels less than originally planned.


Concerns over oil supply

A Reuters survey said that oil prices remain above $ 100 a barrel in the next year 2012 (from 110 to 130 U.S. dollars per barrel in June 2012) due to supply concerns outweigh the fears about the slow global economic growth.Experts estimate that non-OPEC oil will go into decline and the world will be in the hands of OPEC oil soon.

The peak production oil This is when more than half of the total reserves, the yield curve rises, reaches a peak, remains elevated for a certain time and then suddenly drops sharply (maybe even from one year to another).Well, it seems, the peak of non-OPEC countries is imminent. Of all the countries outside the OPEC Russia alone seems able to increase production, but not for long, and even that is uncertain.

The non-OPEC oil is nearing the end

All over the world have detected a total of only six hundred systems capable of producing oil and gas in profitable quantities. Of these, four have been or are being exploited and the remaining two hundred are in the Arctic or in deep water and there is no assurance that hold oil or gas.

In the last forty years only have you found four supergiant oil fields outside the Middle East: the Chinese countryside Doqing (1961), the Russian Sannotbot (1963), Prudhoe in Alaska (1967), and the Mexican Cantarell (1975). From then until now, only some small, and the four supergiants, only Cantarell Doqing and maintain high yields, although with signs of decline. Already have passed the peak in all cases.The giant fields follow the same trend as the supergiants. Most of them have gone into production after 1970, were sold by 2000, only three have gone into production since 1990.

Oil, how long?

The U.S. Geological Survey One of the most respected agencies in the world oil estimates that world oil reserves are at about 2.5 billion barrels (so far it is estimated that the world has consumed just over one trillion barrels). But this estimate total proven reserves 1.6 trillion, half of them in the Middle East, with nine hundred billion barrels of undiscovered oil.

The world consumes currently more than 80 million barrels per day. If consumption continues to grow at a rate of 2% per year, 2.5 billion barrels should reach the peak around 2030. Although many experts believe that these data are relative since few states have higher reserves a country will export more oil this year.

Less discoveries each year

It is becoming harder to find new oil fields. Since 1961 the oil companies find less oil each year that passes. Since 1995, the world spends a minimum of 24,000 million barrels per year, but only are discovering new oil 9,000 million per year. In fact, the oil in the world outside of OPEC will be around one billion barrels, giving a peak between 2010 and 2015.

However, in this dark perspective the markets not react, and why it should be understood from the “spare capacity of OPEC,” which is nothing else than confidence and widespread belief that markets are Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have wells that are not using and that may become operational at any moment.