Today WTI rises 0.66% to $ 94.24 and Brent up 0.90% to $ 104.13.

Oil prices continue to rise due apparently to increased tension between Iran and the West. This increases the risk of a disruption of Iranian oil embargo, the 5th largest oil exporter.

Forecast of price increase

Iran warned the West on Sunday that any initiative to block oil exports more than double the price of oil, with devastating consequences for a world economy that is fragile.About this oil traders believe that if Iranian exports were stopped, that would be very significant, because the market is already tight. So, oil traders continue to maintain that deduct a 20% chance of a military conflict with Iran could push prices above $ 200.

Oil Price_ Evolution

Bad omens for the future of oil

The oil world’s cheapest is Iraqi, followed by Saudi Arabia. Iraq and Saudi Arabia have huge fields where enough to make a drilling and oil starts to flow easily. In these countries is so easy to access oil in extraction becomes cheaper. For example Russia spends fifteen dollars to extract a single barrel of oil, while for the same amount Saudi Arabia needs one dollar and a half.

Saudi Arabia is the largest producer of oil, but not only that, without Saudi oil just the oil business because non-OPEC oil is on the edge of the peak. Crossing the peak decline enters a time of increasing global demand, the planet just depends essentially on OPEC oil.
The problem is that nobody knows how much oil is in OPEC because of its policy of silence.

But experts believe, for example, that Iran’s reserves are in decline. Iran has four supergiant fields, but they all have crossed the peak and Iranian production is declining year after year.But there are more countries of OPEC in the same situation. The only supergiant of Oman, crossed the peak in 1997. Nigeria has also passed the peak. Kuwait has reduced the production rate Burgan complex, the second largest oilfield in the world.

It has also crossed the peak in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. This means that most of the major OPEC producers has entered decline. But there is one producer who everybody trusts to solve the problems of global oil supply: Saudi Arabia.

The importance of Saudi oil

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest producer of oil, but not only that, is the pillow that cushions the fall in production worldwide. But Saudi Arabia does not have enough energy to meet global needs.All models are based international energy supply from the assumption that Saudi oil is so abundant and cheap that could meet global demand until at least 2030.

Prevent independent verification of its reserves, but they claim to have proven reserves of 260,000 million barrels.But 75% of its oil comes from only two fields: Ghawar (Equivalent to 65% of the oil in Saudi Arabia) and Safaniya (Producing 15% of the country’s oil).

Almost everyone has the idea that there are millions of almost inexhaustible fields scattered throughout the deserts of Saudi Arabia, all with a huge production, capable of responding to growing global demand and the multiple problems of the other large producers.
Not so. The truth is if the global economy depends on Saudi Arabia, that represents a dependence on just two fields for which data are confidential.

Thanks to the contribution of new technologies is now on the plateau of production, but these are a double edged sword on one side help maintain high production, the other accelerates the emptying of tanks and pressure decrease respectively .It may last a hundred years, but it will not last long is the high rate of current production. This implies that the market will soon have much less oil available at a time when demand is increasing, which will cause oil prices reach triple digits.